Think of the difference between running at the beach on the compacted sand near the water, as opposed to the sand 20 feet from the water’s edge. Common Beyer Speed Figure Patterns It is generally accepted that among older established claiming horses, after three improving figures in a row, such as 65-68-71, the horse will regress to a lower figure. Every performance by every horse in North America is assigned a Beyer number which reflects the time of the race and the inherent speed of the track over which it was run, permitting easy comparisons of efforts at different distances. The resulting unit will depend on the units for both time and distance, so if your input was in miles and hours, the speed will be in mph. For example, times of 1:12 at six furlongs, 1:25 at seven furlongs and 1:38 at a mile all equaled a 94 to Beyer, who used a numeric system in which the higher the speed figure, the better the performance. Choose any horse! Factor in the Equibase Class Rating. Speed figures provided a real edge to handicappers who calculated their own figures in the days before Beyer figures became a staple of the "Daily Racing Form." Mossflower, multiple Skip Away, Free House, Silver Charm, Wagon Limit, etc. These figures gave them a huge edge over the majority of their betting competition – who had only final times at their disposal. Best Beyer Speed Figure: 101 – San Vicente Stakes. The New Orleans Classic, run earlier on the card, was run in 1:50.27, earning a Beyer Speed Figure of 98. Notice the final time for the race rune on June 11 (1:45.33) is faster than the time for the race on July 1 (1:46.15). Now that Beyer Speed Figures are included in the Daily Racing Form past performance lines for all to see and use, the Figure handicappers no longer have the edge they once had, but they do maintain an advantage over the players that cling to the perceived value of raw final times. Required fields are marked *. How to Understand and use Beyer Speed Figures for Profit at the Race Trackby Kenneth Strong of Predictem.com. So, let’s provide some examples. The Beyer Speed Figure took absolute speed ratings based on finishing times a bit further by comparing them to the par or average value for that track and applying a variant depending on whether the track was faster or slower than average on the day the figure was earned. In later articles, we’ll dig into the topic much more, discussing how to utilize these figures in your handicapping process. It is a gift when a horse such as Justify comes into the Kentucky Derby with a massive (by today’s standards) 107 Beyer Speed Figure earned in his final prep race. When contrasting these two tracks (which are both dirt) there is more than meets the eye at the 8.5f (1 1/16 miles) distance. The Woodbine races were on a Synthetic surface, and the Finger Lakes race was run on a Dirt surface. Despite being a full second (1:47.18 vs. 1:46.15) slower than the July 1 race at Woodbine, the Beyer Figures are almost identical 76 and 77. Your email address will not be published. These Figures continue to be calculated by a group of individuals working on behalf of Andy Beyer. The Louisiana Derby was run at 1 3/16 miles in 1:56.47, earning a 91 Beyer Speed Figure. The higher the number the faster the horse ran. Beyer Speed Figures appear in the Daily Racing Form for races run in North America. TimeformUS, Brisnet, Ragozin, etc.) Not only that, his 5th and 6th starts have the same Bris rating, but there's a 10 point difference on the DRF figures. Beyer Speed Figures are better than the raw final times still used by many handicappers because they take into account the actual speed and depth of the racing surface on any given day. negative #) figures TG has awarded vis a vis past racing seasons. To determine the speed index for an individual horse, first the difference between his final time and the 100 speed index time is calculated. Basically it gives a numerical representation of how fast a horse ran taking into account the factors such as competition, track bias, and the actual time of the horse. The figures were later purchased by the Daily Racing Form where they are still presented today. These numbers reflect the relative strength of different racing circuits. And not just a little better, but about three lengths better (based on the point values for various distances outlined in Beyer’s book “Picking Winners”). If this game were easy, there would be a lot of rich horseplayers out there. Below is an extract from the Past Performances of a couple horses that ran at the same distance (8.5 furlongs) at four different race tracks. That is handicapping, though. How can that be? Well, for that day of racing (July 1) the collective times for the races run were likely slower (when compared to Par Figures) than the collective times for the races run on June 11. Next let’s compare Finger Lakes to a Gulfstream Park (GP) race run on April 5, 2012. Lifetime Beyer Speed Figures. Figure handicappers in the old days could get some great prices on horses that were actually faster than their competition – because nobody else knew it. Neal Benoit is authoring essays on a new website titled Daring Ways. It is important to note that while the Beyer Speed Figures that appear in the Daily Racing Form are quite accurate, they are still only a measure of raw ability and they do not take into account the horse’s trip, track biases and other related factors. This seems very odd as it would equate, approximately, to 1 3/16 miles in 1:56.80, slower than the Derby time. Beyer Speed Figures. Beyer old method (he no longer uses it for DRF figures) simply compares par with the raw final figure found on a speed chart and averages them for the day. The BRIS Speed Ratings points-per-length scale is based on the long accepted premise that as distances increase the value of a length decreases. For example, a horse that runs a Beyer Speed Figure of 82 going seven furlongs should theoretically run a similar Figure going a mile, assuming it can handle the extra distance. What we didn’t discuss is the variability that can occur at a single track from day-to-day, and on occasion from race-to-race. The higher the number the faster the horse ran. The top Beyer Speed Figure earned by a Kentucky Derby winner since 1987 is 118, shared by Summer Squall (1990), Silver Charm (1997) and Smarty Jones (2004). 2) Exaggerator (6/1) – The only Derby trail horse to produce three 95+ Beyer Speed Figures in 2016: San Vicente Stakes 98, San Felipe Stakes 96, Santa Anita 103. •Graded Stakes Winner of $694,273 with 103 Beyer Speed • An outstanding 2YO, CALCULATOR placed second to Horse of the Year AMERICAN PHAROAH in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity and the Grade 1 Frontrunner S., and is one of only four horses at stud to outrun AMERICAN PHAROAH. The formula for average speed, also called average velocity in physics and engineering, is: v = d / t where v is the velocity, d is the distance, and t is the time, so you can read it as Speed = Distance / Time. Here we are comparing two dirt tracks, but they have vastly different surfaces. differs from other types of speed figures such as the Beyer speed figures that are calculated using only the final time of the race. I'm guessing that will be four or five tracks at any given time. Numerical representation of a horse's performance based on the final time and the inherent speed over the track on which the race was run. Handicappers who profitably use Beyer Speed Figures know that the top Figure horse will win only 25-30 percent of the time at an overall loss. This allows you to compare figures between different tracks and have confidence that the variables have been factored into the process. These Figures represent a relative measure of how fast a horse finished in a prior race. Additionally, handicappers who can see and understand the patterns revealed by the Beyer Speed Figures over a succession of races continue to maintain an edge over their rival bettors. For example, the 100 speed index time for 350 yards at Los Alamitos is :17.39. Of course, eliminating the 100 Beyer Speed Figure as a cutoff point creates a lot more work for the handicapper. In this case we’re comparing two different race tracks and two completely different surfaces. A horse that runs six furlongs in 1:10 over a lighting fast track with a two-inch cushion might run the same distance in 1:12 when the track surface has a four-inch cushion. I've used this conversion to translate European Beyer based speed figures I calculate to their TG equivalent to use with your sheets. He says that he quickly realised that calculating 'speed figures' was the most powerful tool in the game. Copyright © 2021 Predictem. His 103 Beyer Speed Figure earned in the Santa Anita Derby is the top speed figure for this year’s Kentucky Derby crop. I’ve thrown a lot at you here, and it might seem a little fuzzy at this point. These Figures represent a relative measure of how fast a horse finished in a prior race. When handicapping a horse race, there are more variables than one can count, but using the Beyer Speed Figures will get you headed in … However, the Beyer Figure is actually higher for the July 1 race. Beyer Speed Figures are the most accurate measure of how fast a horse ran in its previous races and they are an absolutely essential tool in any handicapper’s arsenal. First, a "raw" figure is computed using the actual race time and a complex formula. That means the horses have to navigate two turns, and obviously that affects the final time. So a difference of 1 full second translates to approximately five lengths. Your email address will not be published. Beyer on Demand - Single Horse. TimeformUS handicapper David Aragona and TimeformUS chief figure-maker Craig Milkowski discuss the addition of TimeformUS Pace Figure to DRF Formulator. The times are fairly similar, yet the Belmont race has a Beyer Fig 18 points lower. Notice the final time for the GP race is a full 2 seconds faster than the FL race, yet has a lesser Beyer Speed Figure (72 compared to 76). The last comparison we’ll make is between Gulfstream Park and the Belmont (Bel) race on October 12, 2012. This implies that Secretariat would have had the highest ever Beyer speed figure. All Rights Reserved, Risen Star Stakes Picks – Road to the Kentucky Derby, Villanova Wildcats vs. Creighton Bluejays Pick, Indiana Hoosiers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Odds & Pick, AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Tournament Analysis & Picks. Because the top Figure horse is almost always over bet, sharp handicappers use identifiable and profitable patterns found in the Beyer Speed Figures to find overlays. Pars for Beyer Speed Figures represent the approximate average winning figure for a given class at a given track. The Equibase Class Rating is a single number for each horse that projects the Equibase Speed Figure that particular horse is capable of earning in today's race. For example, a horse will often run a much better Figure when able to clear early to an open lead and hold it to the wire. Similarly, a come-from-behind sprinter who runs a big Figure over a tiring track favoring closers will often not run a matching figure when faced with a track favoring front runners. Why? The Beyer speed figures are more well known since they are the ones printed in the Daily Racing Form, but there is still great value in the lesser known Quirin system. We’ll discuss the final times, the resulting Beyer Speed Figures, and why at first glance these figures seem contradictory. $3.00. Surface speeds change day to day, … The Finger Lakes surface is traditionally much deeper and slower, while the Gulfstream Park surface is quicker. Let’s start with the first two races listed at Woodbine (WO) race track on June 11 and July 1, 2011. Second, the "raw" figure is adjusted by the appropriate calculated track variant which is specific to a track, distance and surface. Beyer Speed Figures appear exclusively in Daily Racing Form. Before Beyer Speed Figures were added to the Daily Racing Form, many sharp handicappers had their own sets of figures that were calculated using a similar methodology. However, Beyer also acknowledged that by some calculations, Count Fleet's Beyer speed figures might have reached 150. For example, a horse that runs a Beyer Speed Figure of 82 going seven furlongs should theoretically run a similar Figure going a mile, assuming it can handle the extra distance. Past performance records usually include a speed figure for each horse running in a race, which may be calculated in Beyer Speed Figures or Equibase Speed Figures, two common ways to gauge a horse's racing prowess. Based on an entire day of results, figure makers determine whether it’s the horse or the track that’s fast in an entry level allowance race for older males going a mile in 1:33. The intent of Speed Figures (Beyer or other) is to provide a quantitative measure of how fast a horse ran in a race, and provide the handicapper a measure that is consistent across a multitude of race tracks, distances, and surfaces. In the early 1970’s, a man named Andrew Beyer changed the way people bet on horses by developing the speed figure. Beyer and his team of eight have calculated “par” times for various class levels and distances. Speed Figures TrackMaster utilizes Speed Figures which are calculated in three basic steps. The calculation of these figures is based on a formula created by Andrew Beyer and incorporated into the DRF starting in 1992. The Equibase Class Rating is a predictive number based on the horse's previous Speed … If a horse runs a :17.60, that time is .21 slower than the 100 speed index time. Beyer decided to sell his figures to a horse racing newspaper. This is generally referred to as a track variant. The evolution of speed figures. Of course, this begs the question: How could the slower race — on the same day, at the same track, with no discernable change in the weather — produce a better speed figure than the faster race? When you were comparing Woodbine to Finger Lakes, you said despite being a “full second” difference … as if that’s a big deal. Even if these two tracks had the identical surface, the configurations of the track are completely different. DRF Beyer Speed Figures. $3.00. This Bris/DRF speed figure difference happens in just about every race at every track and it becomes tough trying to separate them. Notify me of follow-up comments by email. As noted above, make sure you convert the units appropriately first, or use our speed calculator which does that automatically. Next let’s contrast the final times between Woodbine and the third race listed in the example above, a race run at Finger Lakes (FL) race track on July 21, 2012. Beyer became a legendary bettor, often finding winning horses that paid odds of 5-1 or better. The general guideline is 1/5 a second equates to 1 length. Speed figures are calculated in a basic three step process: 1) First, a raw figure is computed using the actual finishing time and a complex mathematical formula that incorporates many of the factors mentioned above. As we have discussed in prior articles, there is considerable variance between the surfaces of different tracks. Daily Racing Form publishes the par Beyer Speed Figure for most classes, and such pars are based on years of raw time data. It’s probably not that dramatic, but you get the point. Royal Delta (Earning a 105 Beyer Figure at Saratoga). Beyer Speed Figures are designed to be interchangeable and transferable between tracks and distances, which makes for quick and easy comparisons. I had been struck this season by the number of super fast (i.e. The same horse, when confronted with pressure and unable to get the lead, will often run a lower Figure. Belmont at 8.5f is a 1-Turn race, while Gulfstream at the same distance is a 2-Turn race. We’re not going to get into all of the details on the calculation of these Figures, nor the debate on their effectiveness when compared to other Figures (e.g. It’s about living life with courage. Old fashioned speed figures are calculated by comparing a horse’s time to the track record. The Beyer Speed Figures represent the final times within the context of the specific track in which the race was ran. Pace Figure Speed Figure 4. Because this is so time-intensive, I will be able to hand-calculate variants on only select meetings throughout the year. That’s the track variant factor that I mentioned above. This variant is applied to the raw finishing time of each race, and ultimately affects the final Speed Figure assigned to each horse. If it was in meters and seconds, it will be in m/s (meter… These charts will give an exact number based on final times to correspond to how fast your horse was running in the given race. I have made a copy of Speed Rating Charts that were origionally designed by Andrew Beyer in his book "Beyer On Speed". They take into account how each Figure in the past performances was run with regards to trip and track bias, and take a broader look at the Figures in an effort to predict what kind Figure the horse will run today, taking into account the horse’s likely trip, any perceived track bias, jockey, class, surface, distance etc. Essentially, figure makers want to know how fast a horse ran in relation to the speed of the track he ran on. Of course, this is a vast simplification of how the Beyer speed figures are determined, but they are a good thing to be aware of, especially if you use the Daily Racing Form for your handicapping. The calculation of these figures is based on a formula created by Andrew Beyer and incorporated into the DRF starting in 1992. This variant is calculated and applied independently for every race track on every day of racing. Beyer Speed Figures are designed to be interchangeable and transferable between tracks and distances, which makes for quick and easy comparisons. at this time. They allow you to compare performances at different distances and from different tracks and are often used to quickly separate contenders from pretenders. How can that be? Collaborative Handicapping – A Travers Stakes Story, Uncovering Workout Patterns – TimeformUS Style. For now, suffice it to say they reasonably reflect the final time of each race run by a horse, and do provide a measure of comparison between different tracks, distances, and surfaces. Beyer, a columnist for the Washington Post and a respected handicapper, believed that bettors could select more winners if they were able to put a number on how fast a horse ran in a given race. Choose any horse! A handicapper using only final times would think that the 1:10 race was better than the 1:12 race, which would be incorrect – this gives YOU an edge. Getting back to the difference between TimeformUS Speed Figures and Beyer Speed Figures, the latter does not incorporate the Pace or Weight into their calculation.A horse that finishes a length ahead of another horse, will always have a higher Beyer Figure. The diagram below will help to explain. For now, let’s just say; when comparing different horses and races in the past performances, the higher the Beyer Speed Figure the better. When computing the Beyer Speed figures, they concern themselves only with the comparable (Par) times at that specific race track and the variant for that day (at that track).